Donald Trump wkurzył Latynosów. To go może kosztować zwycięstwo

What kind of people support Trump?

-This is the big question—nobody knows and there are a lot of misperceptions/misreporting in the American media. What is definitely true is that the battle in this election cycle is entirely over the white vote.

-That is, Trump’s xenophobic rhetoric has alienated racial minorities in the United States: many polls have him winning 0% of the African American vote (Mitt Romney won something like 5%--worth checking), and traditionally Hispanics have supported Democrats by a 2/3 margin, but the polls in this election suggest something closer to 80% (check). The big question with racial minorities is turnout. According to early voting returns, African American/black turnout is Lower than in 2012 when Barack Obama was running for re-election. Hispanic turnout is much higher (link), which is not surprising, because trump started his campaign by calling immigrants from Mexico “rapists” and “murderers” and by promising to build a wall between Mexico and the United States and forcing Mexico to pay for it.

-Much of Trump’s rhetoric has focused on winning working class whites in hard hit Midwestern industrial states, and that is where his polling is the strongest outside the south and heartland (i.e., he’s doing better than traditional republicans, it seems, in places like Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, and maybe Pennsylvania)

-However, note from my description above that this is very much Republican rhetoric and strategy AS USUAL in a lot of respects: Republicans have traditionally criticized the intellectual elite, tried (unsuccessfully) to win white working class voters, and done well in poorer/less economically vibrant states (although with richer voters in those states)

-In the media, the “trump supporter” is typically portrayed as a rural, poor, uneducated “white trash” kind of person, but the data don’t really support this. According to exit polls from the primary the average income of Trump’s primary supporters was $72,000 annually, higher than the median income of both Americans and white americans (respectively, $56k and $62k) according to polls, Trump continues to draw support from whites who earn above median incomes (see although this could change with the actual election;

-what is true this time is that Trump is doing worse among younger people and women then Republicans usually do, and better among older people;

-Additionally, the big cleavage seems to be education. Trump is polling much weaker among educated whites than Republicans usually do (Romney won this demographic by 6%, polls suggest that Trump is losing it by 10%)'

-To some extent, this is a continuation of a trend as business managers and self-employed people have been becoming more Republican since the 1970s, while liberal professionals (who have more education) have been becoming more Democratic, but Trump has taken the division to new extremes

-Additionally, the polls suggest that Clinton is winning rich people—those making above $100k annually and even those making $1million annually or more, which is a big change for the Democrats

-To sum up: the evidence suggests that Trump supporters are middle and upper middle income older white males, especially uneducated ones, who tend to live in rural and suburban places within economically declining regions of the United States (i.e., the south, the heartland, and the industrial Midwest)

-What Trump/The Republicans Hope: That minorities don’t show up to vote (which is why so much of the Republican strategy has been on “voter suppression”) and that Trump can win over working class whites, a dream of the Republican party for decades.